SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic – What happens to private markets when these companies go public?
How Large Is The Private Market Currently?
Private markets have seen sustained growth over recent years, as more companies look to stay private for longer before going public. The data backs this up – with market volume reaching a record US$171 billion in 2024, up 45% year on year according to McKinsey.
These numbers are reflected in Australia, with private market assets under management growing 2.6x from 2014 to 2024, from $57 billion to $149 billion – according to Mandala.
At the same time, Australian IPO numbers dropped ~82% from 2021 to 2025, with only 35 companies going public in 2025.
This shows that private markets are increasingly becoming the primary environment in which high-growth companies accumulate their value, and these markets show no signs of slowing – despite three Mega-IPOs on the horizon.
Why Are More Companies Choosing To Stay Private?
Staying private was once considered a temporary period for companies on the way to an IPO. However, today, many of the world’s most ambitious companies are using it as part of their growth strategy.
Several factors are driving this shift in Australia:
- The IPO is no longer a reliable exit pathway
- Companies no longer want to comply with continuous obligations
- Liquidity solutions that traditionally only existed in public markets are now accessible to private companies and their shareholders through regulated platforms
- Companies want to avoid public market volatility and retain control over pricing and timing.
These factors are explored in further depth in our ‘Private Market Liquidity Problem’ blog see here.
Historically, when companies hit a large enough size, they would begin to prepare for an IPO – yet now even the biggest companies in the world are biding their time, despite their drastic size.
Why The World’s Largest Companies Can Afford To Wait For An IPO:
Despite being three of the most well-known companies in the world, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have each taken a patient approach to entering public markets rather than rushing toward an IPO.
Their valuations show their scale: SpaceX is approaching its IPO at a valuation of approximately $1.75 to $1.8 trillion, Anthropic raised its most recent round at a $965 billion valuation in May 2026 and OpenAI was operating at an $852 billion valuation in March 2026. Together, these three companies represent an unprecedented concentration of private market value.
So why would they wait? The answer is that there is no longer the need to rush to an IPO. There is significant private infrastructure that has been developed to support companies and allow them to stay private, for example: Australian company FCX who offer world-first regulation in secondary transactions. Platforms like FCX allow companies like these to offer liquidity solutions to early investors and employees – meaning that the companies can stay private and stay in control for longer.
The decisions to IPO at this size rather than at a smaller size, are a sign that private markets gave these companies the opportunity to accumulate the value that they have today.
How Using Secondary Transactions Allowed These Companies To Stay Private For Longer:
Each of these companies has used secondary transactions to stay private – harnessing the infrastructure that has been developed to provide liquidity solutions to shareholders:
- SpaceX are renowned for regularly using secondaries. They have routinely completed secondary sales, allowing employees and early investors to cash in on earnings accrued through shares
- OpenAI similarly completed frequent secondary transactions such as a sale where employees collectively sold $6.6 billion worth of shares in late 2025. They are also known for having strict policies relating to secondaries and who can enter their cap table, making the need for regulation critical.
- Anthropic completed a secondary share sale at the start of 2026, however investors couldn’t buy as much equity as they desired – due to shareholders believing the value of Anthropic will continue to increase.
How Will Private Markets Change After These IPOs?
These three Mega-IPOs will reshape the composition of private markets, though not in the way many assume. The instinctive reaction is to expect the market to shrink, but we believe that the reality is likely to be more complicated.
When these companies list, participants who invested in any rounds will receive meaningful liquidity, in some cases for the first time in years.
That capital will not remain idle – private market investors, will re-invest into private markets. The liquidity created by these IPOs is likely to trigger new investment activity into the next generation of high-growth private companies, sustaining the private market and creating a cycle to ensure continued private market growth.
At the same time, the structural reasons that have driven the trends relating to companies staying private are not going to disappear. Companies understand that they can access capital, manage their cap tables, control their shareholder base, and navigate growth entirely within private markets – these Mega-IPOs of 2026 won’t undo the existing trends.
Completing Secondaries Through FCX:
For companies looking to stay private in Australia, look no further than FCX.
FCX has both an Australian Market Licence and an Australian Clearing and Settlement Facility Licence under ASIC and the RBA – bringing the transparency of listed markets to private transactions.
Regulation in the secondary market is significant – most secondary market activity in Australia has historically taken place in unregulated environments, which lack the visibility of public markets.
FCX changes that – every secondary executed through FCX is structured, auditable, and fully compliant. Companies retain full control over pricing, timing, and who enters the cap table, and investors participate in a market that operates under the same regulatory standards they would expect from a public exchange. That combination of control and credibility is what allows companies to stay private as they grow in size.
If your company is thinking about how to provide liquidity in an illiquid market, we encourage you to reach out.